Analyzing Intelligence

cover art
352 pp., 7 x 10
ISBN: 9781589012011 (1589012011)

April 2008
LC: 2007031706

Audio Excerpt:


Table of Contents

Analyzing Intelligence
Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations
Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce, Editors

Drawing on the individual and collective experience of recognized intelligence experts and scholars in the field, Analyzing Intelligence provides the first comprehensive assessment of the state of intelligence analysis since 9/11. Its in-depth and balanced evaluation of more than fifty years of U.S. analysis includes a critique of why it has under-performed at times. It provides insights regarding the enduring obstacles as well as new challenges of analysis in the post-9/11 world, and suggests innovative ideas for improved analytical methods, training, and structured approaches.

The book's six sections present a coherent plan for improving analysis. Early chapters examine how intelligence analysis has evolved since its origins in the mid-20th century, focusing on traditions, culture, successes, and failures. The middle sections examine how analysis supports the most senior national security and military policymakers and strategists, and how analysts must deal with the perennial challenges of collection, politicization, analytical bias, knowledge building and denial and deception. The final sections of the book propose new ways to address enduring issues in warning analysis, methodology (or "analytical tradecraft") and emerging analytic issues like homeland defense. The book suggests new forms of analytic collaboration in a global intelligence environment, and imperatives for the development of a new profession of intelligence analysis.

Analyzing Intelligence is written for the national security expert who needs to understand the role of intelligence and its strengths and weaknesses. Practicing and future analysts will also find that its attention to the enduring challenges provides useful lessons-learned to guide their own efforts. The innovations section will provoke senior intelligence managers to consider major changes in the way analysis is currently organized and conducted, and the way that analysts are trained and perform.

Roger Z. George is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and is currently a senior analyst at the CIA's Global Futures Partnership. He is a career CIA intelligence analyst who has served at the Departments of State and Defense and has been the National Intelligence Officer for Europe. He has taught at the National War College and other private universities and is coeditor of Intelligence and the National Security Strategist: Enduring Issues and Challenges.

James B. Bruce is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. He is a retired career CIA intelligence analyst who has served with the National Intelligence Council, within the Directorates of Intelligence and Operations, and has worked extensively with other intelligence community organizations. He has taught at the National War College and has authored numerous studies on intelligence and deception.
"A practical and wide-ranging study of intelligence analysis. The editors have done a superb job of seamlessly editing the work of a number of the world's recognized experts of intelligence gathering and analysis. Of special interest to readers should be those chapters related to the relationship between analysts and national-level security and policymakers. This book will be an invaluable resource for future analysts and those professionals currently involved in overcoming the enduring challenges associated with the role of intelligence in a free society."—Parameters

"Analyzing Intelligence is the most comprehensive book on the subject to date—a really valuable treatment for those anticipating becoming an intelligence analyst, as well as for those who already are."—Studies in Intelligence

"Law and policy recognize that intelligence is the strategic pivot of the current fight [against terrorism], so readers of Proceedings who seek a deeper understanding of how we might wage war more effectively should put Analyzing Intelligence at the top of their reading list."—Proceedings

"The value of this book comes from the variety of perspectives it brings to the discussion all at one time, and it is particularly useful for scholars and teachers for that very reason."—International Affairs

"This impressive collection is unrivaled. It is the most comprehensive survey and investigation of the role, challenges, and quality of intelligence analysis, and its topical organization gets far past the basics and into the subtle aspects of the business."—Richard K. Betts, director of the Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University

"This could be the Rosetta stone for understanding the role of analysis in producing intelligence. Much has been written about intelligence failures, from Pearl Harbor to Iraq WMD, but relatively little has been written about how to reduce the risk of repeating those failures. This comprehensive unblinking collection, by many of the most authoritative experts in the profession, with virtually seamless editing by Roger George and James Bruce, is the most important addition to the literature in a generation. Sherman Kent would be proud!"—Senator Charles S. Robb, co-chairman of the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction

"In Analyzing Intelligence, a distinguished and highly experienced group of experts offers penetrating insights into issues of intelligence analysis. Invaluable for the practitioner, the volume also clarifies the pitfalls and potential of intelligence for anyone interested in the subject."—Paul R. Pillar, professor of security studies, Georgetown University and former senior CIA official

"Intelligence analysts are accused of failing to connect the dots related to 9/11 and connecting the wrong dots related to Iraq. This important work provides the better understanding of analysis that is crucial for getting it right."—Joseph S. Nye Jr., Harvard University and author of The Powers to Lead

"At last…a comprehensive compendium of thought and insights on the profession of analysis! George and Bruce have provided us with the objective 'secret sauce' that helps separate the job of intelligence analyst from newsman or journalist; including why analytic cultural reform is so difficult. This is a must read for anyone interested in intelligence reform, analytic transformation, and for the fifty percent of the intelligence community analysts with less than five years experience."—Timothy R. Sample, President, Intelligence and National Security Alliance and former Staff Director, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence

"The most wide-ranging introduction to the vital craft of American intelligence analysis that has ever been published for the general audience of peers, scholars, and students. As editors, George and Bruce both exemplify and advance the professional standards they preach. Readers will find plenty of healthy self-criticism and recognition of problems. Yet readers may end up questioning some preconceptions of their own as they encounter essays that knock down some caricatures and corrosive myths that too often dominate contemporary discussion of intelligence issues."—Philip Zelikow, White Burkett Miller Professor of History, University of Virginia, and former executive director or the 9/11 Commission

"Analyzing Intelligence offers a sophisticated overview of the history, performance, and practice of intelligence analysis. The contributors explore why good analysis is extraordinarily difficult and how changing threats, technologies, and expectations are shaping the intelligence profession."—James J. Wirtz, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California

Table of Contents
Introduction: Intelligence Analysis—The Emergence of a Discipline
James B. Bruce and Roger Z. George

Part One: The Analytic Tradition

1. The Evolution of Intelligence Analysis
John H. Hedley

2. The Track Record: CIA Analysis from 1950-2000
Richard J. Kerr

3. Is Intelligence Analysis a Discipline?
Rebecca Fisher and Rob Johnston

Part Two: The Policy-Analyst Relationship

4. Serving the National Policymaker
John McLaughlin

5. The Policymaker's Perspective: Transparency and Partnership
James B. Steinberg

6. Intelligence Analysis: Between "Politicization" and Irrelevance
Gregory F. Treverton

Part Three: Enduring Challenges

7. The Art of Strategy and Intelligence
Roger Z. George

8. Foreign Denial and Deception: Analytical Imperatives
James B. Bruce and Michael Bennett

9. U.S. Military Intelligence Analysis: Old and New Challenges
David Thomas

Part Four: Diagnosis and Prescription

10. Why Bad Things Happen to Good Analysts
Jack Davis

11. Making Analysis More Reliable: Why Epistemology Matters to Intelligence
James B. Bruce

12. The Missing Link: The Analyst-Collector Relationship
James B. Bruce

Part Five: Leading Analytic Change

13. Managing Analysis in the Information Age
John C. Gannon

14. Intelligence in Transition: Analysis after September 11 and Iraq
Mark M. Lowenthal

15. The New Analysis
Carmen A. Medina

Part Six: New Frontiers of Analysis

16. Computer-Aided Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Richards J. Heuer Jr.

17. Predictive Warning: Teams, Networks, and Scientific Method
Timothy J. Smith

18. Homeland Security Intelligence: Rationale, Requirements, and Current Status
Bruce Berkowitz

Conclusion: The Age of Analysis
Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce

Glossary of Analytic Terms