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The Image of the Enemy
ISBN: 9781626162389 (1626162387)
ISBN: 9781626162396 (1626162395)
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The Image of the Enemy
Intelligence Analysis of Adversaries since 1945
Paul Maddrell, Editor
Intelligence agencies spend huge sums of money to collect and analyze vast quantities of national security data for their political leaders. How well is this intelligence analyzed, how often is it acted on by policymakers, and does it have a positive or negative effect on decision making?
Drawing on declassified documents, interviews with intelligence veterans and policymakers, and other sources, The Image of the Enemy breaks new ground as it examines how seven countries analyzed and used intelligence to shape their understanding of their main adversary. The cases in the book include the Soviet Union's analysis of the United States (and vice versa), East Germany's analysis of West Germany (and vice versa), British intelligence in the early years of the Troubles in Northern Ireland, Israeli intelligence about the Palestinians, Pakistani intelligence on India, and US intelligence about Islamist terrorists.
These rivalries provide rich case studies for scholars and offer today's analysts and policymakers the opportunity to closely evaluate past successes and failures in intelligence analysis and the best ways to give information support to policymakers. Using these lessons from the past, they can move forward to improve analysis of current adversaries and future threats.
Paul Maddrell is a lecturer in modern history in the Department of Politics, History, and International Relations at Loughborough University (UK). He is the author of Spying on Science: Western Intelligence in Divided Germany, 1945-1961.
"The interplay among the case studies is fascinating and instructive for academics and intelligence professionals alike."—Studies in Intelligence
"A valuable addition to the historiography of modern intelligence. It is both a work of clear historical analysis as well as a catalogue of strengths and weaknesses, the understanding of which would be of great benefit to members of the intelligence community across the world today. By focusing on intelligence assessments of one's primary adversary, it highlights a factor which is often forgotten in the study of intelligence—the human role in evaluating raw intelligence material, understanding how it fits into the bigger picture, and then acting on it accordingly."—Institute of Historical Research
"How should we know about our enemy? How do we know we are right in our estimations? These are two of the most persistent questions confronting intelligence agencies. The Image of the Enemy is a remarkable book that addresses these issues directly and thoughtfully. It is full of revelations and remarkable observations that will surprise even those who thought they knew about intelligence analysis."—Richard Aldrich, Professor, Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick
Table of Contents
Introduction: Achieving Objective, Policy-Relevant Intelligence
1. Soviet Leaders, Soviet Intelligence, and Changing Views of the United States, 1965-1991
Raymond L. Garthoff
2. The Stasi's Reporting on the Federal Republic of Germany
3. "We May Not Always Be Right, but We're Never Wrong": US Intelligence Assessments of the Soviet Union, 1972-1991
Benjamin B. Fischer
4. East Germany in the Sights of the West German Federal Intelligence Service: Four Examples from As Many Decades
5. British Intelligence, PIRA, and the Early Years of the Northern Ireland Crisis: Remembering, Forgetting, and Mythologizing
6. Israeli Intelligence Threat Perceptions of Palestinian Terrorist Organizations, 1948-2008
Tamir Libel and Shlomo Shpiro
7. Pakistani Intelligence and India
8. American Intelligence Assessments of the Jihadists, 1989-2011
Conclusion: Intelligence and Policy
List of Contributors