Analyzing Intelligence

Analyzing Intelligence, now in a revised and extensively updated second edition, assesses the state of the profession of intelligence analysis from the practitioner's point of view. The contributors—most of whom have held senior positions in the US intelligence community—review the evolution of the field, the rise of new challenges, pitfalls in analysis, and the lessons from new training and techniques designed to deal with 21st century national security problems. This second edition updates this indispensable book with new chapters that highlight advances in applying more analytic rigor to analysis, along with expertise-building, training, and professional development. New chapters by practitioners broaden the original volume’s discussion of the analyst-policymaker relationship by addressing analytic support to the military customer as well as by demonstrating how structured analysis can benefit military commanders on the battlefield.

Analyzing Intelligence is written for national security practitioners such as producers and users of intelligence, as well as for scholars and students seeking to understand the nature and role of intelligence analysis, its strengths and weaknesses, and steps that can improve it and lead it to a more recognizable profession.

The most comprehensive and up-to-date volume on professional intelligence analysis as practiced in the US Government, Analyzing Intelligence is essential reading for practitioners and users of intelligence analysis, as well as for students and scholars in security studies and related fields.

Table of Contents

Preface
1. Intelligence Analysis: What Is It—and What Does It Take?
James B. Bruce and Roger Z. George

Part I: The Analytic Tradition
2. The Evolution of Intelligence Analysis in the US Intelligence Community
John H. Hedley
3. The Track Record of CIA Analysis
Richard J. Kerr and Michael Warner
4. Is Intelligence Analysis a Discipline?
Rebecca Fisher, Rob Johnston, and Peter Clement

Part II: The Policymaker–Analyst Relationship
5. Serving the National Policymaker
John McLaughlin
6. The Policymaker’s Perspective: Transparency and Partnership
James B. Steinberg
7. Serving the Senior Military Consumer: A National Agency Perspective
John Kringen

Part III: Diagnosis and Prescription
8. Why Bad Things Happen to Good Analysts
Jack Davis
9. Making Intelligence Analysis More Reliable: Why Epistemology Matters to Intelligence
James B. Bruce
10. The Missing Link: The Analyst–Collector Relationship
James B. Bruce

Part IV: Enduring Challenges
11. The Art of Intelligence and Strategy
Roger Z. George
12. Foreign Deception and Denial: Analytic Imperatives
James B. Bruce and Michael Bennett
13. Warning in an Age of Uncertainty
Roger Z. George and James J. Wirtz

Part V: Analysis for Twenty-First-Century Issues
14. Structured Analytic Techniques: A New Approach to Analysis
Randolph H. Pherson and Richards J. Heuer Jr.
15. New Analytic Techniques for Tactical Military Intelligence
Vincent Stewart, Drew E. Cukor, Joseph Larson III, and Matthew Pottinger
16. Domestic Intelligence Analysis
Maureen Baginski

Part VI: Leading Analytic Change
17. Building a Community of Analysts
Thomas Fingar
18. The Education and Training of Intelligence Analysts
Mark M. Lowenthal
19. Analytic Outreach: Pathway to Expertise Building and Professionalization
Susan H. Nelson
20. Conclusion: Professionalizing Intelligence Analysis in the Twenty-First Century
Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce

Glossary
Contributors
Index

Reviews

"An important, thoroughly documented book that clarifies the vital importance of analysis to the intelligence profession. It should be carefully read by students and practitioners alike."—Intelligencer

"A 'must' for any collection interested in the latest security changes and practices"—Midwest Book Review

"Essential for practitioners and users of intelligence analysis, as well as for students and scholars in security studies and related fields."—The Intelligencer

"The last dozen or more years are replete with significant successes and failures of intelligence analysis. These essays make a unique contribution to dissecting the factors behind both, as well as offering broader perspectives and insights on getting the analysis right, effectively serving decision makers, and preserving the integrity of the effort. The authors are superbly qualified and I believe their contributions to the craft of intelligence will be both useful and lasting."—Robert M. Gates, former secretary of defense and former director of the CIA

"Analyzing Intelligence provides a superb and self-critical assessment of analyst roles in the collection, evaluation, and interpretation of information on the wide spectrum of issues germane to national security. All who work in and receive support from the intelligence community should read the outstanding essays in this collection."—Mike McConnell, former director of national intelligence

"Roger George and James Bruce have produced, in this new edition of their classic volume, the best source for wisdom on modern intelligence analysis. With important contributions from superstars in the US profession, this new edition is a landmark signifying professionalization of the intelligence enterprise. It deserves a place on every serious student and practitioner's bookshelf."—Jennifer Sims, senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, former deputy assistant secretary of state for intelligence coordination, and co-editor of Vaults, Mirrors, and Masks: Rediscovering US Counterintelligence

"Analyzing Intelligence is an impressively broad, deep, and comprehensive survey of the nature, problems, and coping techniques of the craft. The contributors combine professional experience and intellectual acuity in an ideal way for making sense of the psychological, political, and bureaucratic context of intelligence work. The book serves as a handbook for government analysts at all stages of their careers, and an eye-opening explanation of the process for outside observers. No other does so as thoroughly."—Richard K. Betts, Arnold A. Saltzman Professor of War and Peace Studies, Department of Political Science, Columbia University, and author of Enemies of Intelligence: Knowledge and Power in American National Security

"An indispensable guide to one of the most critical issues affecting intelligence and policy-making in the twenty-first century, successfully combining the lessons to be drawn from both first-hand experience and academic research."—Christopher Andrew, faculty of history, Corpus Christi College, University of Cambridge, and author of Defend the Realm: The Authorized History of MI5

Contributors

Maureen BaginskiMichael BennettJames B. BrucePeter ClementDrew E. Cukor Jack Davis Thomas FingarRebecca Fisher Roger Z. GeorgeJohn H. Hedley Richards J. Heuer Jr. Rob Johnston Richard J. KerrJohn Kringen Joseph Larson IIIMark M. Lowenthal John McLaughlinSusan H. Nelson Randolph H. PhersonMatthew Pottinger James B. Steinberg Vincent StewartMichael Warner James J. Wirtz

Supplemental Materials

Awards

About the Author

Roger Z. George is professor of national security strategy at the National War College and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University in the Security Studies Program. He was a career CIA intelligence analyst who served at the State and Defense departments and has been the national intelligence officer for Europe. He is coeditor of several volumes on intelligence and national security studies, most recently The National Security Enterprise: Navigating the Labyrinth.

James B. Bruce is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. A retired career intelligence analyst, he served with CIA’s Directorate of Intelligence and Directorate of Operations, and with the National Intelligence Council as deputy national intelligence officer for science and technology. An adjunct professor at Georgetown University, he has taught previously at the National War College, and as an adjunct at Columbia University and American University.